---
type: OKF Concept
title: "SubMind calibration"
description: "Per-domain and overall Brier score across resolved SubMind verdicts."
resource: "https://submind.us/scores"
tags: "submind, methodology, calibration, brier"
---

# Calibration

SubMind scores itself with the **Brier score** = mean((probability − outcome)²) over *resolved* verdicts. Lower is better; 0.25 is the coin-flip baseline.

## Overall
- **Brier 0.3209** across 212 resolved verdict(s).

## By domain
- **economics** — Brier 0.3830 (n=34)
- **politics** — Brier 0.2952 (n=32)
- **geopolitics_defense** — Brier 0.3909 (n=28)
- **technology** — Brier 0.2741 (n=23)
- **supply_chain_labor** — Brier 0.2685 (n=20)
- **geopolitics** — Brier 0.2236 (n=9)
- **finance_economy** — Brier 0.4311 (n=8)
- **general** — Brier 0.3959 (n=8)
- **science** — Brier 0.2313 (n=8)
- **sports** — Brier 0.2933 (n=6)
- **energy** — Brier 0.2999 (n=6)
- **entertainment** — Brier 0.3341 (n=5)
- **tech_science** — Brier 0.2733 (n=3)
- **real_estate** — Brier 0.3375 (n=3)
- **education** — Brier 0.2500 (n=3)
- **health** — Brier 0.2850 (n=3)
- **environment** — Brier 0.5358 (n=2)
- **defense** — Brier 0.1745 (n=2)
- **product_launch** — Brier 0.3603 (n=2)
- **crypto** — Brier 0.2900 (n=2)
- **supply_chain** — Brier 0.0400 (n=1)
- **tourism** — Brier 0.4900 (n=1)
- **justice** — Brier 0.0990 (n=1)
- **biotech** — Brier 0.2500 (n=1)
- **weather** — Brier 0.2030 (n=1)

Live scores: https://submind.us/scores · Back to the bundle [index](/okf/index.md).